Fold Equity
Math Level · Intermediate Aliases: fold percentage, folding equity
Fold equity is the value a bet gains from the chance your opponent folds and you take the pot uncontested.
What is Fold Equity
Fold equity comes from the portion of an opponent’s range that gives up when facing your bet or raise. Even when your hand has little showdown equity, betting can still be profitable if they fold often enough. Sizing, board texture, position, both ranges and the opponent’s temperament all change how much of it is available — it never exists independently of the range you are betting into. Against a player who will not fold, a range that is strong and concentrated, or a line where you cannot credibly represent a value hand, fold equity drops sharply. Semi-bluffs are powerful precisely because they add the chance of an immediate fold to the equity your hand retains when called.
On the felt
Table6-max cash game
PositionBTN
FlopJ♠8♦3♣
ActionContinuation bet with a hand holding backdoor equity
Example
You hold A♠5♠ on the button and the flop is J♠8♦3♣. A small continuation bet folds out plenty of king-high, queen-high and weaker ace-high hands. Even when called, you still have a backdoor flush and overcard outs.
Common mistakes
- Assuming any bet automatically carries fold equity. If the opponent's continuing range is strong, or they simply do not fold, that value can be close to zero.
- Focusing on the fold and ignoring the risk. The bet size and the success rate it requires still have to be weighed against the pot.
Related terms
Equity
Equity is the share of the pot your hand or range wins on average if the hand runs to showdown.
Exploitative Play
Exploitative play adjusts your own strategy to target the deviations you can observe in an opponent.
Mixed Strategy
A mixed strategy takes two or more legal actions in the same spot, each at a set frequency.
Outs
Outs are the remaining cards that improve your hand to one that can win.
Pot Odds
Pot odds weigh what a call costs against what you stand to win, so you can tell whether the price is right.
Range
A range is every hand an opponent can reasonably hold, given the way the action has gone.