Fold Equity

Math Level · Intermediate Aliases: fold percentage, folding equity
Fold equity is the value a bet gains from the chance your opponent folds and you take the pot uncontested.

What is Fold Equity

Fold equity comes from the portion of an opponent’s range that gives up when facing your bet or raise. Even when your hand has little showdown equity, betting can still be profitable if they fold often enough. Sizing, board texture, position, both ranges and the opponent’s temperament all change how much of it is available — it never exists independently of the range you are betting into. Against a player who will not fold, a range that is strong and concentrated, or a line where you cannot credibly represent a value hand, fold equity drops sharply. Semi-bluffs are powerful precisely because they add the chance of an immediate fold to the equity your hand retains when called.

On the felt

Table6-max cash game
PositionBTN
FlopJ♠8♦3♣
ActionContinuation bet with a hand holding backdoor equity

Example

You hold A♠5♠ on the button and the flop is J♠8♦3♣. A small continuation bet folds out plenty of king-high, queen-high and weaker ace-high hands. Even when called, you still have a backdoor flush and overcard outs.

Common mistakes

  • Assuming any bet automatically carries fold equity. If the opponent's continuing range is strong, or they simply do not fold, that value can be close to zero.
  • Focusing on the fold and ignoring the risk. The bet size and the success rate it requires still have to be weighed against the pot.

Related terms